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EXPERIENCE OF TREND EXTRAPOLATION IN FORECASTING MORTALITY AMONG THE POPULATION OF TUVA FROM THE EXTERNAL CAUSES

Issue: 3(3), 2022
Authors:
Section: Socio-economic research
UDC: 314.4
Pages: 92-99
Views: 7
PDF downloads: 3
DOI: doi.org/10.24412/2782-6139-2022-3-92-99
EDN: elibrary.ru/TJNEJN
Keywords:
mortality external causes forecasting extrapolation methods Republic of Tuva
License: CC BY-NC 4.0
EXPERIENCE OF TREND EXTRAPOLATION IN FORECASTING MORTALITY AMONG THE POPULATION OF TUVA FROM THE EXTERNAL CAUSES
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The article provides an analysis of the mortality of the population of the Republic of Tuva from external causes during the period of 2012-2020. The purpose of the work is to analyze a number of indicators of mortality from external causes, the choice of methods for predicting mortality rates. One of the most commonly used methods of analyzing and predicting population mortality rates is the method of extrapolation: the polynomial trend and the “moving average line” trend. The authors have shown that the “moving average line” method of trend extrapolation gives the smallest error in forecasting mortality.

Dongak Ilyana Ivanovna
Dongak Ilyana Ivanovna1
Corresponding author
Organization: Research Institute of Medical and Social Problems and Management of the Republic of Tuva
City and country: Kyzyl, Russia
Senior Researcher
idupchur79@mail.ru
Author affiliations
1
Research Institute of Medical and Social Problems and Management of the Republic of Tuva, Kyzyl, Russia
Dongak, I I., Arakchaa, K. D. (2022), “Experience of Trend Extrapolation in Forecasting Mortality among the Population of Tuva from External Causes”, Asian Studies: History and Modernity, no. 3, p. 92-99. DOI: 10.24412/2782-6139-2022-3-92-99

© Dongak I.I., Arakchaa K-K.D. 2022

Creative Commons License This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License