Kara-Kys D. Arakchaa

EXPERIENCE OF TREND EXTRAPOLATION IN FORECASTING MORTALITY AMONG THE POPULATION OF TUVA FROM THE EXTERNAL CAUSES

The article provides an analysis of the mortality of the population of the Republic of Tuva from external causes during the period of 2012-2020. The purpose of the work is to analyze a number of indicators of mortality from external causes, the choice of methods for predicting mortality rates. One of the most commonly used methods of analyzing and predicting population mortality rates is the method of extrapolation: the polynomial trend and the “moving average line” trend. The authors have shown that the “moving average line” method of trend extrapolation gives the smallest error in forecasting mortality.